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Taliban: three years later
  • Taliban
    Taliban
Three years after the Taliban's return to power, the situation in the country remains complex and contradictory.Afghanistan has returned to a situation that bears many similarities to the pre-Western invasion period. The fundamentalist Islamic movement, struck down by the U.S. because it was accused of connivance with al-Qaeda and its leader Osama Bin Laden, announced just hours after the seizure of Kabul the birth of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and the restoration as the prevailing law of Shari'a, in its strictest and most fundamentalist interpretation. While the Taliban have now consolidated their control over the territory, their management of the country continues to be marked by economic problems, human rights violations and international isolation. According to the United Nations, one-third of the approximately 40 million inhabitants live on bread and tea; unemployment is massive, and the World Bank predicts zero growth over the next three years. There have also been some positives in the economic sphere: the currency has proven resilient, corruption now seems less ubiquitous than in the past, and tax collection has improved. Afghanistan also has great mining and agricultural potential, which the Taliban government is trying to exploit, but it is hampered by weak infrastructure and a lack of skills and capital. Several international actors, some of whom do not put respect for human rights at the top of the agenda in their bilateral relations, have decided to establish or resume relations with the new Taliban government, although these relations are often limited and ambiguous. Neighboring Pakistan and Iran, for example, were among the first countries to re-establish contact with the Taliban government. Both have historically had complex relationships with the Islamic movement, characterized by periods of support and tension. Pakistan, in particular, has been accused of supporting the Taliban during their return to power. However, even current relations are not without friction, especially regarding border management and the presence of extremist groups. China was one of the first non-Muslim countries to seek dialogue with the Taliban and has repeatedly called on the Taliban to maintain internal stability and prevent Afghan territory from becoming a platform for armed groups such as the Uighur separatists of Xinjiang, a Turkic-speaking, Muslim minority in western China. Although Beijing has not yet officially recognized the Taliban government, it has maintained an open diplomatic channel with Kabul seeking to protect its strategic interests in the region, so much so that in January a special envoy from the emirate presented his credentials to Beijing, puzzlinginternational observers. Qatar has played a central role in negotiations between the Taliban and the United States, while Turkey has offered technical assistance and support in managing the Kabul airport. The Emirate's relations, especially with its Central Asian neighbors, are currently marked by the clearest pragmatism. Russia, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, for example, share Chinese concerns about regional stability and the threat of terrorist infiltration, as demonstrated by the attack on Moscow's Crocus City Hall last March. The Russian Federation, while not formally recognizing the Emirate government, has hosted Taliban delegations and maintained regular contacts, seeing Afghanistan as a strategic point in its policy toward Central Asia. Despite these contacts, however, no country has yet officially recognized the Taliban government as legitimate. Afghanistan, which continues to be an area of instability with potentially destabilizing consequences for the entire region, seems to have slipped to the bottom of the international community's agenda compared to three years ago, complicit in the fact that two other major theaters of crisis in Ukraine and the Middle East have since opened and flared up. “Agreed” during the Trump administration and realized in Biden's early months, the third anniversary of the Taliban's return to power comes today amid uncertainty for the country and the future of its people.
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