The end is potentially more devastating than any military retaliation: New Delhi has unilaterally suspended the Indus Water Treaty, a treaty between India and Pakistan negotiated by the World Bank in 1960 that regulates the flow of six rivers in the Indus basin. The treaty allocates the waters of the Indus and its tributaries: India controls the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi) and Pakistan the western ones (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), allowing India certain uses of the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes such as hydroelectric power. The suspension of the treaty means, in short, having a free hand to potentially deprive Pakistan of about 80% of the irrigation necessary for agriculture. A declaration of war, they say in Islamabad: where wars, albeit fought and never won, are declared. And where the same script of proxy war is being played out, line by line, but is now beginning to show its weaknesses. To recap: on 22 April in Pahalgam, in the Jammu region, a commando unit composed of four terrorists attacked a group of tourists picnicking in a meadow. The toll was 28 dead and an as yet unknown number of wounded. The manner of the attack and the target differ from any other incident in the last thirty years: the four asked the men to lower their trousers or recite the kalma, the Muslim profession of faith. Those who could not and those who were not circumcised were killed in cold blood. Responsibility for the attack was claimed a couple of hours later by The Resistance Front, a group unknown to most people in this part of the world but well known in the Jammu and Kashmir region. The TRF was formed in 2019 following the repeal of Article 370, which ended Kashmir's semi-autonomous status. According to Indian intelligence and the US State Department, this is yet another offshoot of the Pakistani terrorist organisation Lashkar-e-Taiba, a group that claims to be “indigenous” and to be fighting against the Indian occupation of Kashmir. It would serve to cover up the direct involvement of LeT and its Pakistani sponsors in the attacks in the region by providing what is known in jargon as “plausible deniability”. Loosely translated, this means throwing the stone and hiding your hand. A hand that, however, is becoming increasingly difficult to hide. The TFR is led by Sheikh Sajjad Gul (alias Saifullah Kasuri), one of the main commanders of the LeT, who resides in Kashmir, but in Pakistani Kashmir. From there, in the days leading up to the attack, he thundered, together with LeT generalissimo Abu Musa, calling for jihad in the region. Also on stage were a couple of Hamas members, who appear to have been spotted more than once in the area in recent months. The TRF justified the attack via Telegram using familiar arguments, just as the massacre of civilians sounds familiar: the tourists were “settlers” or “undercover Indian agents” and the residence certificates issued to “settlers”, Indian citizens of non-Kashmiri origin, were allegedly altering the demographics of the region. The brave commanders of the LeT echoed their commander-in-chief, Pakistani army chief General Asim Munir. Munir, in a vaguely hysterical speech delivered on 16 April, in which he reiterated the so-called “two-state theory”, highlighting the irreconcilable differences (and Pakistani superiority) with the Hindus, called Kashmir “the jugular vein” of Pakistan and declared once again that he was ready to fight yet another war to help “our heroic brothers”. Side note: the heroic brothers apparently have no intention of being helped by Munir. For the first time, in fact, Kashmiri citizens took to the streets en masse to protest against the terrorist attacks and, also for the first time, a protest lockdown was declared in the region: not against the government, but against the jihadis. No one wants to return to the situation of 2019, and no one wants to lose the substantial income generated by tourists and pilgrims. According to intelligence estimates, only a small group of about a hundred jihadis remain in the region. Perfectly armed and trained, however. In fact, the four members of the Pahalgam commando, two Pakistanis and two locals, were armed with AK47s and, surprise surprise, M4 assault rifles. M4s are not exactly one of the weapons that are standard issue for jihadi groups in the region: to be used effectively, they require specific military training. And, above all, they are manufactured in the United States and supplied to NATO troops. As well as, of course, the Pakistani army, thanks to military aid provided by the United States during the war on terror. After the US withdrawal from Kabul in 2021, the Taliban were left with over $7 billion worth of American military equipment, including some 300,000 small arms such as M4s. According to local sources, many of these weapons ended up in Pakistan and were supplied to various ISI-sponsored jihadi groups. As expected, Islamabad denies any involvement: the government accuses India of “false flag operations” while the army beats the drums of war on social media. Meanwhile, Pakistani diplomats have been expelled from India, as have all Pakistanis holding a SAARC visa. The Attari border has been closed, cutting off the only trade route, and the Indus Water Treaty has been suspended. The warriors of X are calling for the bombing of Indian dams, and this is not an empty threat. Mohammed Hafiz Saeed, the leader of LeT (as well as large sections of Pakistani intelligence and politics) has always linked the jihad in Kashmir to the issue of waterways. He stated this verbatim to the author years ago: 'India is trying to destroy Pakistan's economy by building dams across the border, dams that block the flow of our rivers or completely change their course... Of course, the prospect of a nuclear conflict is not pleasant for anyone, but at this point, it is not entirely unlikely...And if the West and all peace-loving people around the world want to avoid a nuclear conflict, they would do well to think about what to do. If the world wants to avoid a nuclear war, it must stop India'. Or, even better, defuse Pakistan.