According to a report by the Afghan news agency Khaama Press, considered highly reliable, on April 7, several US Air Force C-17 Globemaster aircraft landed in Bagram carrying military vehicles, various types of equipment, and senior US intelligence officials, including CIA Deputy Director Michael Ellis. Also according to the Khaama Press report, the Americans landed in Bagram to 'regain control' of the military base at the request of the Taliban government. The conditional tense is necessary because, despite the arrival of the C-17s being confirmed by flight tracking data, neither the Americans nor the Taliban have officially confirmed the incident. On the contrary, Taliban spokesman Zahibullah Mujahid has officially denied the news, dismissing it as 'propaganda'. However, the presence of CIA officers, as well as the landing of the C-17s, is insistently confirmed by several sources despite the denials. This move, which appears to most to be entirely unexpected and even somewhat inconsistent, is set to radically change the game and strategies in the region. Built in the 1970s by the Russians, the Bagram military base is a veritable citadel covering approximately 77 square kilometers. It includes two runways capable of landing any military aircraft, three large hangars, a control tower, a 50-bed hospital with a trauma unit, and a notorious detention center. It is located about 60 kilometers north of Kabul and has been the nerve center of US operations in the region for years. In 2021, the base was abandoned overnight by the Americans when the ignominious withdrawal following the Doha agreement came into effect and hypocritically 'handed over to the Afghan military', which lasted the space of a morning before the arrival of the Taliban. In Bagram, the Americans left behind approximately $7 billion worth of military vehicles and equipment, which the Afghans appear to be reselling at a profit on more or less questionable markets. Immediately afterwards, according to rumors officially denied by the Kabul government but confirmed by most sources, Chinese and Pakistani forces arrived in Bagram to manage the base and train the Taliban in the use of American military equipment that not long ago paraded with great pomp through the streets of Kabul. For months, Donald Trump has insisted on 'keeping a small contingent' in Bagram and has fiercely criticized the Biden administration for abandoning the base altogether: 'We should have maintained a presence in Bagram,' he said, 'not so much for Afghanistan as for China. Bagram is an hour away from where China manufactures its nuclear weapons. Not only that, but Bagram is also strategically close to Iran's western border and its nuclear sites. On the other hand, there have been rumors for months now about the possible reopening of an American embassy in Kabul with Zalmay Khalilzad (the architect of the Doha defeat) as ambassador. Similarly, there have been rumors for months about the possible reopening of the Afghan embassy in Delhi and Russia's intention to officially recognize the Kabul government. And the Taliban have officially requested that the Americans transfer control of the Afghan embassy in Washington. Complicating the picture is another event: less sensational than an American landing in Bagram but perhaps even more destructive to the fragile current balance. A forum on mining investment in the country is underway in Islamabad, and there are persistent rumors of a possible agreement between Pakistan and the US on the exploitation of mines in Balochistan, particularly the currently underdeveloped gold and copper mine in Reko Diq. A mining agreement between the US and Pakistan could alarm China, which has deep ties to Pakistan through the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The port of Gwadar in Balochistan, a milestone of the CPEC, is located 320 km from Reko Diq. US involvement could be seen as a move to counter China's regional grip, especially if US companies such as Barrick Gold (which already owns 50% of the rights to Reko Diq) expand their operations. From the US perspective, the proximity of Bagram (644 km from Balochistan) could theoretically support logistics and/or security for mining projects, amplifying the perception of a strategic pivot against China: which has strengthened ties with the Taliban by investing in Afghan minerals such as lithium, but denies military ambitions in Bagram and the surrounding area. But above all, it could create a strategic pivot against Iran, which shares a 965-kilometer border with Balochistan. A mining agreement between the US and Pakistan, especially with Bagram as a US hub, would anger Tehran, especially if seen as part of an anti-Iranian strategy with Bagram as a launch pad against Iran that would complete the strategy of encircling US bases in Iraq and the Gulf. Certainly, the Taliban's control over Bagram makes them, in a sense, architects of the region's destiny: US access to the military base could support the exploitation of Pakistan's mines, thus challenging China's CPEC and Chinese ambitions in Afghanistan; while a refusal strengthens Beijing's position. An agreement between the US and Pakistan would intensify proxy rivalries in the region, with the Taliban and Iran as saboteurs or facilitators. Then there is the wild card of the Balochistan militant groups, which oppose the indiscriminate exploitation of their resources and are fighting for the region's independence. Not to mention the assortment of various jihadis operating between Afghanistan and Pakistan: largely in the pay of Islamabad, which plays them on the same team or against each other as needed, but also financed by Iran to destabilize Pakistan as convenient. They are already supported by the Americans, like the anti-Iranian groups fighting against Tehran in Sistan-Balochistan, or in the pay of the Kandahar faction of the Taliban (with whom Iran has recently established excellent relations) which wants to destabilize the already destabilized Pakistan. Where the forum on mining rights was also, to put it mildly, widely criticized by both the Baloch and Pashtuns in the regions bordering Afghanistan, where a full-scale civil war has been looming for months. Thanks to the army, which, in order to “guarantee the total security of investors,” can find nothing better to do than shoot unarmed demonstrators in cold blood and make defenseless citizens disappear. The region increasingly resembles a powder keg ready to explode: Bagram and Balochistan, if not handled with care, could be the spark.