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Pakistan: Misplaced Optimism
  • Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor
    Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor
Optimistic about 'positive intents' shown by Pakistan, United States (US) President Donald Trump tweeted in the morning of October 14, 2017,

Starting to develop a much better relationship with Pakistan and its leaders. I want to thank them for their cooperation on many fronts.

Earlier, hailing the news of an American woman and her family rescued from terrorists in Pakistan on October 11, 2017, Trump in a statement released on October 12, 2017, observed,

Yesterday [October 11">, the United States government, working in conjunction with the Government of Pakistan, secured the release of the Boyle-Coleman family from captivity in Pakistan. Today [October 12"> they are free. This is a positive moment for our country's relationship with Pakistan. The Pakistani government's cooperation is a sign that it is honoring America's wishes for it to do more to provide security in the region. We hope to see this type of cooperation and teamwork in helping secure the release of remaining hostages and in our future joint counterterrorism operations.

In 2012 (date not specified), Caitlan Coleman, an American citizen, and her husband, Joshua Boyle, a Canadian citizen, were taken captive and held hostage by the Haqqani Network, a terrorist organization with ties to the Taliban, and backed by the Pakistani state. Coleman gave birth to the couple's three children [a fourth died in infancy, according to Boyle, 'killed' by their captors, an accusation they deny"> while they were in captivity. Boyle's last call from freedom was to his in-laws (Coleman's parents), on October 8, 2012, to tell them that he was calling from an internet cafe in an `unsafe` part of Afghanistan.">

On the same day, October 11, 2017, of the release of the American-Canadian couple, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) rejected the application of Milli Muslim League (MML), the political front of the Hafiz Saeed-led Jamaat-ud Dawa (JuD)/ Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), for registration as a mainstream political party. Rejecting the application, Pakistan's Chief Election Commissioner Sardar Raza Khan observed, `The interior ministry's [Ministry of Interior"> letter mentions that the MML is backed by banned terrorist outfits.` MML was formed on August 7, 2017, and had applied for registration with the ECP in the same month. Subsequently, the ECP had sought the opinion of the Interior Ministry which, in its reply sent in September 2017, had written `There is evidence to substantiate that Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), the JuD, and Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation are affiliates and ideologically of the same hue and the registration of the MML is not supported.` The letter reportedly mentioned that MML president Saifullah Khalid had claimed that Saeed and he were ideologically affiliated with each other's organisations. 

MML had even participated in a by-election for the Lahore National Assembly (NA) seat held on September 17, 2017. In the election, won by Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) candidate Begum Kulsoom Nawaz who secured 61,745 votes, Yaqoob Sheikh, the MML-backed candidate, bagged 5,822 votes, more than four times the votes secured by the main opposition Pakistan Peoples Party's (PPP) candidate Faisal Mir (1,414 votes). Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) candidate Yasmeen Rashid, at the second position, bagged 47,099 votes. The seat fell vacant after the then Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif was asked to vacate the seat and resign as Prime Minister subsequent to the Supreme Court's ruling in the Panama Papers case. The winning candidate, Begum Kulsoom Nawaz is Nawaz Sharif's wife.

As SAIR had noted earlier, with the US exerting more pressure, there seems to be urgency among terrorist formations/individual leaders operating out of Pakistani soil to gain 'political legitimacy' to counter any further existential threat. Apart from MML, declared a `Specially Designated Global Terrorist` by the US on September 30, 2014, Maulana Fazlur Rehman Khalil, founder of the terrorist Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), which operates in Indian Jammu & Kashmir, has reportedly decided to form his own political party: Islah-e-Watan Party (IWP).

On September 27, 2017, Pakistan's Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif admitted that JuD chief Hafiz Saeed, LeT, and the Haqqani Network had become Pakistan's liabilities: `It is very easy to say that Pakistan is supporting Haqqanis and Hafiz Saeed and Lashkar-e-Taiba. They are liabilities, I accept that they are liabilities. But give us time to get rid of these liabilities. You are increasing our liabilities further.` The Minister was speaking at a session hosted by the Asia Society in New York.

These three developments followed US President Trump's announcement of his `Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia` on August 21, 2017, where he declared his intentions to forge a `Radical Redirection` in US policy towards Pakistan; and similar such assertions by senior US officials in recent past. Though these developments are now being hailed by many experts as 'key change in Pakistan's orientation towards terrorism', all celebrations are premature, and Pakistan's game of deceit continues.

Indeed, while Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif conceded on August 27, 2017, that the state's terrorist proxies had become a 'liability', he also argued, in an interview on October 9, 2017, `We have offered American authorities to visit Pakistan (sic) with evidence of Haqqani network's safe havens in the country. If they find any activity (of Haqqanis) in the targeted areas, our troops along with the US would destroy them once and for all.` 

Almost immediately thereafter, contradicting Asif's 'offer', an October 14, 2017, news report quoted Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director General Major General Asif Ghafoor as saying, `Whatever has to be done by Pakistan on its land is done by Pakistan itself. Many countries could not face terrorism. Our forces have full capacity. We can never allow any foreign boot on our ground.` 

In the context of Hafiz Saeed, similarly, while the Ministry of Interior, conceded in its September 2017 letter to ECP that `there is evidence to substantiate that Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), the JuD, and Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation are affiliates` of MML, the Lahore High Court warned on October 11, 2017, that Saeed's house arrest would be set aside if the Pakistan Government (represented by the Secretary in Ministry of Interior) did not submit evidence against him. Saeed, along with another four JuD members, was placed under house arrest in Lahore on January 30, 2017, under Section 11-EEE of Pakistan's Anti-Terrorism Act, which gives the Government the power to arrest or detain terrorism suspects for up to 12 months. The other four included Abdullah Ubaid, Zafar Iqbal, Abdur Rehman Abid and Qazi Kashif Niaz. Significantly, Saeed was put under 'house arrest' soon after Donald Trump assumed power in the US on January 20, 2017. On September 25, 2017, the house arrest of Saeed and others was extended for another 30 days by the Punjab Government. Significantly, the Punjab Government has now declared that no terrorism charges are pending Hafiz Saeed, paving the way for his release. A Punjab Government official told three-member Federal judicial review board headed by Justice Ejaz Afzal Khan of the Supreme Court on October 14 that the Provincial Government 'did not include charges of terrorism' in the new order for Hafiz Saeed and his aides. Saeed's lawyer A.K. Dogar had urged the court to order the release of Saeed and his four aides since they are no longer under ATA. The Lahore High Court is expected to decide his application in the coming week after Justice Muzahir Naqvi asked the Government to file charges against Saeed. 

Earlier on June 2, 2009, a full bench of the Lahore High Court (LHC) accepted a habeas corpus petition and ordered the Government to release JuD chief Hafiz Saeed and another leader Colonel (Retd.) Nazir Ahmad, charged with involvement in 26/11 Mumbai attacks, as the Government failed to provide evidence to prove charges. Originally there were four petitioners to the case, but two other leaders, Mufti Abdur Rehman and Ameer Hamza, were released by a detention review board in May 5, 2009. Despite the Interpol's Red Corner Notice against Saeed, along with LeT 'military commander of operation' Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, issued on August 25, 2009, in response to India's requests for his extradition, on October 12, 2009, all cases against Saeed were quashed by the Lahore High Court and he was set free. The Court also notified that JuD was not a banned organization in Pakistan, and could work freely in the country. 

In the meantime, revealing the state's real intent of using terrorists as proxies and `strategic assets`, ISPR's Maj. Gen. Ghafoor, argued: `Having links is different from supporting. Name any intelligence agency which does not have links. Links can be positive, and (Dunford) did not say there was support (from the ISI).` He was referring to a statement made by General Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during a hearing on October 4, 2017, before the Senate Armed Services Committee, where, when asked if `the ISI is still helping the Taliban,` he had responded: `it's clear to me that the ISI has connections with terrorist groups.`

Pakistan plays the 'minimal satisfier' to the furthest possible limit, conceding what it cannot refuse in specific instances, even as it retains its broader strategic purpose and instrumentalities. Under present and acute pressure from the Trump regime, despite President Trump's opportunistic commendation, there have been marginal demonstrations of compliance, as in the Coleman-Boyle case, but the broader intent remains unaltered. No concrete and irreversible action has been initiated against any element of the principal terrorist proxies and their leaderships in their Pakistani safe havens - including the Haqqani Network, Taliban and the multiplicity of formations operating against India. Unless such action is clearly and successfully initiated, there will be no to Pakistan's strategy of creating, sustaining and exporting terror.
Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow; Institute for Conflict Management
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