Pakistan’s Emergency Has an Elected Government to Remove
Pakistan’s federal authorities have found a remarkably efficient response to the security crisis in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: remove the elected government, detain its chief minister and take over the province. The militants remain a problem. The political opposition has become more manageable. The presidential proclamation of 11 October, signed by Asif Ali Zardari, invokes worsening violence and the breakdown of constitutional machinery. Its most immediately visible achievement is to deprive Imran Khan’s party of the provincial administration from which it was organising a challenge to Islamabad. This does not make the violence in KP imaginary. Citizens and security personnel have paid for it with their lives, and the province needs effective protection against armed groups. What requires explanation is the passage from that real security crisis to the removal of an entire elected executive. The government must establish why provincial administration could no longer function constitutionally, rather than simply insist that it disagreed with the centre’s policies. Counterterrorism cooperation cannot mean that a provincial mandate survives only for as long as its holders accept instructions without objection. The Long March makes the political purpose of the intervention difficult to overlook. PTI mobilisation had brought together demands for Khan’s release and objections to the conduct of security operations. Sohail Afridi was both chief minister and a leading figure in that mobilisation. The emergency stripped him of the first role; detention restricted his ability to perform the second. Whether or not every federal accusation is ultimately sustained, the immediate distribution of advantage is clear. Islamabad has acquired administrative control over the province while weakening the movement preparing to confront it. By Monday, many march participants had dispersed. The authorities may regard that as evidence that order has been restored. It establishes something narrower: removing leaders and threatening further coercion can interrupt a mobilisation. It does not establish that the grievances which brought people into the streets have disappeared. A government can clear a road more quickly than it can restore confidence in the institutions at the end of it. The constitutional form of the intervention is central to understanding its place in Asim Munir’s consolidation of power. Articles 232 and 234 provide emergency mechanisms; their presence in the Constitution does not settle whether this particular use meets the necessary tests. The proclamation displaces the chief minister and ministers, transfers executive functions towards federal control and makes provincial assembly powers exercisable by or under parliamentary authority. The provincial assembly is not simply declared dissolved. Institutions can remain formally present while the authority that makes them meaningful is transferred elsewhere. This is a particularly useful arrangement for a military leadership that does not need to declare martial law to dominate political life. A civilian president signs, a civilian cabinet recommends and ministers explain the necessity. The armed forces retain their position at the centre of the security decisions around which the intervention is organised. Responsibility is distributed across constitutional offices, while the practical capacity to resist the prevailing order contracts. There is no requirement for a general to appear on television announcing that democracy has been suspended. The paperwork can do the work. The KP takeover therefore belongs to a wider process of centralisation. Its significance lies less in adding another title to Munir’s authority than in removing an institution capable of questioning how that authority is used. Provincial government gives an opposition party resources, representation and a platform that cannot easily be reduced to a press statement. Once that platform can be withdrawn through an emergency, electoral success becomes conditional. Voters may choose an administration; the centre reserves the capacity to decide when that choice has become inconvenient to govern. The federal government has now sharpened its case by alleging that the suspended provincial leadership colluded with the Pakistani Taliban. PTI rejects the allegation. Such a charge demands evidence, identifiable conduct and legal proceedings. Its political utility, however, is immediate: disagreement over security policy can be presented as assistance to the enemy. A chief minister questioning military operations no longer has to be answered as an elected interlocutor if he can first be described as a security suspect. That distinction matters especially in KP, where civilians have experienced both militant violence and the consequences of operations intended to suppress it. Opposition to the terms of an operation is not evidence of support for the militants it targets. Asking how civilians will be protected, who will be displaced and what authority local representatives retain is part of governing a province. If those questions become grounds for excluding its government, the centre has converted cooperation into a demand for unconditional endorsement. The people most exposed to the resulting failure are Pakhtun citizens. They require protection from the TTP and an effective voice in the decisions taken in their name. Reducing the second does not automatically improve the first. Intelligence and policing depend partly on trust, and trust is harder to sustain when the state treats political representation as an obstacle to its operations. Administrative control can compel compliance. It cannot manufacture the local legitimacy that makes security policy durable. Zardari’s signature adds a civilian complicity that should not be lost behind Munir’s influence. The PPP has built much of its political identity around the sacrifices of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto and the defence of parliamentary government. It now participates in removing a rival party’s provincial administration. “Democracy is the best revenge” has acquired an unusual practical interpretation: revenge is considerably easier when the other party’s government has been suspended. The contradiction extends to provincial autonomy. The Eighteenth Amendment, passed in 2010, strengthened the federal settlement. Accepting central intervention because its immediate target is PTI weakens a principle on which the PPP’s own authority in Sindh depends. No prediction of an imminent Sindh takeover is necessary. A precedent changes the balance of power before it is used again, because every provincial government must calculate the consequences of opposing the centre. Cooperation purchased by fear of removal is a poor substitute for a federation. Nor does the persistence of parliamentary and judicial procedures guarantee meaningful scrutiny. Their value will depend on whether institutions examine the claimed constitutional breakdown, test the allegations and impose enforceable limits on the intervention. Approval delivered by political allies and review that never alters the distribution of power would preserve the appearance of accountability while leaving its substance untouched. The question is consequently larger than whether PTI can revive its march or secure Afridi’s release. Khan’s party may suffer an immediate defeat, and the centre may regain quieter streets. The more lasting result is a warning about the limits of electoral power: a province can elect a government, but its right to exercise authority can be withdrawn when a security dispute intersects with a challenge to Islamabad. Pakistan has not demonstrated that removing KP’s elected administration will defeat militancy. It has demonstrated that the security crisis can be used to remove an elected administration. The Long March exposed a centre unwilling to accommodate political opposition; the emergency gives that unwillingness administrative force. Restoring ordinary provincial government will now depend on the authorities that displaced it. For those authorities, the province’s insecurity has produced a very tangible dividend.